http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economic ... update.pdf
...
At the national level, we forecast that resale activity will
grow by 1.0% on an annual average basis this year. Fewer
listings should help spur resale price appreciation of around
2.1%. Growth of new starts, 2.2%, is also on tap, as builders
look to break ground to meet the demand. While these
gains are positive – a welcome development as compared to
our previous call of annual declines – they are quite small in
magnitude.
In turn, we are of the view that in-year housing
growth trends should be interpreted as essentially flat. At
the same time, when compared to historical results, the level
of sales, prices and starts remain elevated.
...
It is important to note that not all markets deserve the
same level of concern, as some bear more a risk than others.
In our past regional housing forecasts,
we have repeatedly
put Ontario and British Columbia at the top of our list of
concerns. For the second part of 2011, both regions saw a
deceleration in prices, striking debate about whether each
market had already begun the correction journey. However,
year-to-date in 2012, we have seen price momentum pick
up in both provinces. Standard metrics like price-to-income
and price-to-rent are already significantly higher than what
we consider to be warranted based on underlying factors.
Both regions are expected to realize small price appreciations
in 2012, which pushes up the magnitude of adjustment
of about 15% that is waiting for them come 2013 and 2014.
The housing-related weakness in store for Ontario and
British Columbia will be concentrated in the two largest
urban centres, Toronto and Vancouver, respectively. Other
regional markets like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax have
not seen this same build up in prices. In turn, less of an
adjustment is required to return to more balanced territory.
Т.е , грубо говоря, цены перестанут расти эксподенциально , а около Торонто в Ванкувера даже немного могут прогнуться
