Аналитики устали рассказывать сказки о китайцах, скупающих всю недвигу
...и нехотя признали, что во всей бааааалшой Канаде просто, тупо, НЕГДЕ жить. Единственные пара более-менее городских города - переполняются. И никуда мы не денемся от роста цен на жилье в этих городах.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e28810600/
There’s more than ‘foreign buyer bogeymen’ driving up Vancouver, Toronto home prices: BMO
Behind the price surge
Bank of Montreal has jumped into the debate over house prices, saying there’s much more at play in Canada’s two hottest markets than just foreign buyers.
“It’s easy to blame the foreign buyer bogeymen for the home price gains in Vancouver and Toronto,” BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Robert Kavcic said in a research note that examined other factors feeding the markets.
“Sure, all anecdotes suggest they are playing a role in some neighbourhoods – we just don’t know exactly how big that role is,” he added.
“What we do know is that the fundamentals right here at home are strong enough on their own to drive big price gains.”
Home prices in Vancouver and Toronto have been on a tear, and the issue of foreign buyers is particularly heated in British Columbia.
So much so, The Globe and Mail’s Justine Hunter reports, that the provincial government will demand to know the citizenship of home buyers. There are also tax changes aimed at cooling segments of the market.
Mr. Kavcic cited three reasons why “it’s not just foreign buyers” fanning the flames in Vancouver and Toronto.
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First, to twist the old phrase about real estate, it’s at least partly because of population, population, population.
As his chart shows, Mr. Kavcic cited the rise in the number of people deemed key first-time or move-up home buyers.
“At the same time, these two cities have accounted for 75 per cent of Canada’s net job growth over the past two years,” he added.
Indeed, according to the latest numbers from Statistics Canada, employment in Vancouver has climbed by 4.5 per cent in the past year, and in Toronto by almost 5 per cent.
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Added to that is the age-old supply-and-demand question.
“Vancouver’s geography is well documented, but in Toronto, development restrictions contributed to 2015 seeing the lowest annual number of detached home completions in 37 years (and that’s not a population-adjusted number),” Mr. Kavcic said.
While Mr. Kavcic was referring to new homes, there’s a supply issue in the market for existing homes, as well.
Active listings in Toronto, for example, fell about 14 per cent in January from a year earlier, while new listings dropped 6.2 per cent.
Then there’s Vancouver, where listings plunged by almost 39 per cent in the same period, with new listings also down 6.2 per cent.
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And, finally, financing is dirt cheap.
“Demand is robust, supply is constrained, and those two forces are butting up against each other in a record-low interest rate environment,” Mr. Kavcic said.
“A five-year mortgage is barely above the expected long-run inflation rate. The longer this lasts, the hotter these markets will burn.”
