Bank of Canada keeps rate unchanged ...

[Gatchinskiy]

уже который раз, и поднимать похоже не собирается ...

Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 1/2 per cent.

Information received since the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) indicates that economic growth and inflation in Canada in the first part of this year have been stronger than the Bank was expecting. In April, both total CPI inflation, at 2.2 per cent, and core inflation, at 2.5 per cent, were above expectations. On the basis of available information, the Canadian economy is likely to have grown at an annual rate of about 3 1/2 per cent in the first quarter of this year - a full percentage point higher than was estimated in the MPR. The Bank now judges that there is somewhat greater excess demand in the economy than was thought to be the case in April. U.S. economic activity has come in largely as expected and continuing robust growth outside North America has maintained the global demand for, and high prices of, many commodities produced in Canada. Against this overall backdrop, the Canadian dollar has risen appreciably above the range assumed in the Bank's April projection.

On balance, the Bank judges that there is an increased risk that future inflation will persist above the 2 per cent inflation target and that some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target.

An updated analysis of the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation, including economic and financial developments, trends, and risks, will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report Update, to be published on 12 July 2007.

[AlexANB]

уже который раз, и поднимать похоже не собирается ...

Поднимут в июле и в сентябре.

[Gatchinskiy]

уже который раз, и поднимать похоже не собирается ...

Поднимут в июле и в сентябре.

с чего ты взял? ... я экспект понижение ...

[AlexANB]

с чего ты взял? ... я экспект понижение ...

Разговоры о том, что в этот раз оставят без изменений, а поднимут в июле и сентябре идут уже не первый месяц. Так что пока все идет по сценарию, никаких сюрпризов. К январю 2008 обещают 5.25%

[Yury]

уже который раз, и поднимать похоже не собирается ...

Поднимут в июле и в сентябре.

с чего ты взял? ... я экспект понижение ...

сомнительно насчет понижения, но и насчет повышения есть разные мнения:

"There is an increased risk that future inflation will persist above the two per cent inflation target and that some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target," the central bank said.

However, analysts were not convinced a rate hike is in the offing.

"I still don't believe the bank will have room to tighten given recent news of lumber mill shutdowns (due to the dollar) and increased opposition to currency appreciation by manufacturers," said Andrew Pyle, investment adviser at Scotia McLeod in Peterborough, Ont.

[--------]

Какое повышение?
Год уже жду понижения, и какие 5.25 при повышении если сейчас 6?

[Yury]

Какое повышение?
Год уже жду понижения, и какие 5.25 при повышении если сейчас 6?

4.25 сейчас
вы путаете с прайм-рейтами банков

[AlexANB]

Кстати, сегодня банки подбросили mortgage rates на ап ту 0.3%
Причем это уже второе "подбрасывание" за две недели.

[AlexANB]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=canada

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian currency will rise from a 30-year high against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Canada will boost borrowing costs three times this year, according to the RBC Capital Markets Inc.

Canada's dollar, trading at C$1.0739 versus the U.S. currency, will rise to $1.04 by the end of September, RBC said in a research note published today. It had previously predicted the Canadian currency would reach C$1.08 by then.

The Canadian dollar gained yesterday after the central bank said it may raise borrowing costs in the ``near term'' to restrain inflation. Policy makers held the benchmark lending rate at 4.25 percent for an eighth meeting yesterday, and said there is an ``increased'' risk that inflation will persist above the 2 percent target.

``We changed our forecast because the inflation risk is on the upside, and the Bank of Canada was surprisingly hawkish,'' said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC, in an interview. ``We see the BOC starting to resume the tightening campaign in July.''

The Canadian dollar is the second-best performer compared with 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg in 2007, outperformed only by the Brazilian real. Canada's currency has gained 8.6 percent versus its U.S. counterpart so far this year.

The Bank of Canada will lift the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent at its July 10 policy meeting, Strauss wrote in the report. The bank will further raise rates twice, pushing it to 5 percent by year-end, according to the report.

RBC previously forecasted the Canadian central bank would raise interest rates to 4.5 percent by the end of December, Strauss said.

The Federal Reserve will keep its key lending rate at 5.25 percent for the rest of this year, according to Strauss.

The Canadian dollar will start to decline in the fourth quarter when traders will ``aggressively'' price in the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates in 2008, Strauss said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 30, 2007 09:24 EDT