Интересное чтиво
https://seekingalpha.com/article/429761 ... ough-times
не совсем понял коммент про то что тесла не в состоянии быстро разогнаться несколько раз в отличие от поршика.. еще интересный посыл почему скоро тесле кирдык
New Fight With Taycan Shows That Tesla Is Aware Of Strong Competition And Faces Tough Times
Oct. 21, 2019 11:45 AM ET|135 comments | About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), Includes: VLKAF, VLKPF, VWAGY
The European View
The European View
Long only, long-term horizon, dividend investing, dividend growth investing
(2,227 followers)
Summary
Crazy things are happening in Germany. It almost seems as if the new benchmark for electric cars is emerging there.
Volkswagen and Tesla have been fighting a duel for several months now.
I believe that Tesla is very afraid of the Taycan. In fact, the Taycan and the the fight with Tesla show that Tesla is aware of the strong competition.
This and fundamental data suggest that Tesla is facing difficult times.
Introduction
Crazy things are happening in Germany. It almost seems as if the new benchmark for electric cars is emerging there. Two companies in particular measure themselves against this benchmark, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY; OTCPK:VLKAF; OTC:VLKPF) and Tesla (TSLA). Tesla sends its Model S into the race and Volkswagen its Porsche Taycan. Even if I believe that from a technical point of view, this competition is not really meaningful, it shows a lot at the company level what Tesla investors in particular should pay attention to. Just how seriously Tesla takes this challenge (although the Taycan is the challenger) shows that Tesla is aware of the competition. This and fundamental data suggest that Tesla is facing difficult times.
The fight on the Nürburgring
I am talking about the Nürburgring. The original mountain, race and test track is about 28 kilometres long and is the longest permanent race track in the world.
(Source: Nürburgring)
Volkswagen and Tesla have been fighting a duel for several months now. In August, Volkswagen's Porsche began setting a new standard for four-door all-electric sports cars at the Nürburgring Nordschleife. With the pre-series model "Taycan" the track was conquered in 7:42 minutes. Measurements were taken over the 20.6-kilometre distance. The Taycan has already shown that it can do both round and long distances. With a near-series prototype, the Taycan completed exactly 3,425 kilometres within 24 hours during a test on the high-speed track in Nardò. The other conditions were particularly impressive here. The outside temperatures were 42 degrees Celsius - the asphalt had a temperature of up to 54 degrees.
Tesla now tried very quickly to break the record at the Nürburgring. Unofficially, the Model S is said to have finished the Nordschleife in 7:23 minutes. This would mean that the Model S was about 19 seconds faster than the Taycan. However, this was a hand-stopped time. While a hand-stopped time makes no difference of twenty seconds, Tesla still tries to undercut the record officially.
(Source: Tesla takes Porsche extremely seriously)
Nevertheless, the Taycan should be able to accelerate several times in a row without loss of performance or battery damage. Tesla's Model S simply couldn't do that. Furthermore, Porsche still has an ace up its sleeve: The record is said to have been driven with the Porsche Taycan Turbo and Porsche could still send the 750 (overboosted) hp strong Taycan Turbo S into the fight.
Analyses
But in the end, it doesn't matter who breaks the record. This is just a question for tech enthusiasts, not for investors. As an investor, I wouldn't care. All I care about is whether the company I invest in will be able to make more cash in the end. However, one thing should make Tesla investors think. I believe that Tesla is very afraid of the Taycan (Tesla has seriously taken over the website Taycant.com). The new Porsche Taycan has caused quite a stir worldwide.
Of course, I know the argumentation that the Porsche Taycan does not compete at all with the Model 3 and that competition is generally good for the market. That may be true, especially for consumers who have more choice. The chances of more innovations continue to rise as well. But for which company is fierce competition really advantageous in terms of profitability? Competition automatically leads to price pressure.
The problem at Tesla is that it has to struggle extremely with profitability. On the one hand, Tesla's operating margin is significantly worse than that of Volkswagen.
ChartData by YCharts
The development of the gross margin is even worse. Unlike operating margin, Tesla’s gross margins have steadily declined, from 28 percent in 2014 to the actual 18 percent over the trailing twelve months. This already shows that Tesla does not do any witchcraft and in the end cannot maintain a higher margin than the traditional car manufacturer Volkswagen.
Of course, the margin increases with the growing number of cars sold. However, all companies, not just Tesla, are benefiting from the fundamentally growing market. Investors must therefore fear that Tesla will nevertheless always be less profitable than its competitors. This can be seen from the fact that ID.3 will be cheaper than the Model 3. Porsche has already collected over 30,000 pre-bookings for its electric cars. And in many areas the Taycan clearly targets Tesla's Model S. The price of the Taycan basic version, is pretty much on the level of a Tesla Model S with a bigger 100 KWh battery.
(Source: The Tesla S Performance comes with an 100 KWh battery)
Furthermore, buyers will increasingly go for the Model 3. Price starts at $35,000. The Model S price starts at $69,200. This leads to less Model S cars being bought. Last year, Tesla delivered 24,781 units of the Model S. Compared to 2017, this was a decrease of 8 percent. In this respect, the less profitable product eats up the sales of the more profitable product.
As far as the time frame is concerned, the competition will have an operational impact by next year at the latest.
(Source: 2020 Electric Vehicle Timeline)
The problem with Tesla is that there is no demand for the cars if Tesla would offer them at profitable prices. And demand will continue to decline as competition grows. That is why I do not expect Tesla to achieve a positive EPS through sales.
ChartData by YCharts
In my opinion, the time for Tesla to become profitable through sales has therefore expired. However, many investors are already beyond that. They believe that Tesla would finally become profitable through other activities. They refer to autonomous driving, to solar power, to the electric charging network, to superchargers, etc. Above all, they say that Tesla should not be treated as a car manufacturer, but rather as a tech company like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The problem here, however, is that we are leaving the realm of comprehensible facts (because now, Tesla's main activity is selling cars).
We are moving into speculation, into things that have not yet generated any added value for Tesla and Tesla investors. Anyone who argues in this way pretends that there is no competition in all these areas. Just to name on example, Volkswagen is working together with Microsoft (MSFT) on a cloud system for connected vehicles. Amazon is already there where many cloud provider still want to go because Amazon's cloud service AWS provides services for the Automotive industry to enable the digital transformation at every point of the value chain. The fields have long been occupied by companies that are much more efficient and profitable than Tesla.
Investors only need to look at the following chart to understand how overvalued Tesla is. You can see that Tesla's market capitalization is about half that of Volkswagen. Conversely, Volkswagen simply generates almost ten times as much cash and equivalents as Tesla. It is even more extreme when it comes to sales, as Volkswagen achieves a sum that is more than three times higher than Tesla.
ChartData by YCharts
Conclusion
Tesla takes the competition with the Porsche Taycan extremely seriously. The company seems to be afraid of being surpassed by the competition on all sides (as in the video).
(Source: Tesla is towed away while a Taycan passes Tesla. A sign?)
I believe that Tesla investors should also take the Taycan very seriously. It represents a time in which all established car manufacturers attack Tesla and are apparently successful. I expect the growing competition to have a negative impact on Tesla's sales next year at the latest. Tesla investors should ask themselves much more if a horror without an end is really better than a horrible end.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
