Маркет так конкретно просидает последние дни...

[Fed]

GLD прикупил уже ?

gold тоже льют в этот раз, cash is the king хотя распродажами надо будет воспользоваться.

[oblom]

cash is the king

еще вопрос - какой?

[Fed]

cash is the king

еще вопрос - какой?

ну это у кого какой... форекс - игры не для всех, там плечи слишком велики, можно быстро счет спустить.

[AlexANB]

[quote="...[/quote]
Я вам уже год говорю -- это надо быть полным анацефалом, чтобы вкладывать деньги во что-то, что имеет хоть отдаленное отношение к моргиджам.

Я вообще в кэш вышел в прошлый понедельник, и теперь только наблюдаю как оно валится...

[Fed]

вести с полей: /Dow Jones/. Комиссия по ценным бумагам и биржам США и другие регулирующие органы проводят проверку брокерских компаний и банков, чтобы убедиться в том, что они не скрывают убытков, вызванных кризисом на рынке ипотечного субстандартного кредитования. Об этом сообщила Wall Street Journal, ссылаясь на источники, близкие к ситуации.

[oblom]

как бы оно комом не повалилось

TORONTO (CP) - The Bank of Canada and other central banks around the world pumped billions of dollars into the financial system Thursday in a bid to calm jittery investors and ease concerns about a looming credit crunch that battered North American stock markets.

In an unusual step, the Bank of Canada said Thursday it will "provide liquidity to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets."

"The bank is closely monitoring developments, and will deal with issues as they arise," it said in a statement.

By mid afternoon, the central bank had made more than $1.6 billion available to Canadian banks at its regular interest rate, far more than its recent cash infusions into the financial system.

чето это все не к добру

[anotherv]

Лучшее из того, что довелось недавно читать на эту тему:

Global Liquidity Defined
by Michael Nystrom

Financial analysts and news reporters often refer to the concept of "liquidity," as though it were a magic wand. One touch and all ills are cured. Until recently, it was often heard that "the world is awash in liquidity," which was considered a good thing. More recently, the en vogue observation is that "global liquidity is drying up," which is spoken in ominous tones.

Liquidity and You
What is liquidity? Liquidity is simply a measure of how quickly an asset can be converted into cash. Ultimately, liquidity is cash, because cash can immediately be exchanged for just about anything else.

Financial assets such as stocks are liquid, but how liquid depends on the market and the stock. With a phone call to your broker, or even the click of a mouse, you can convert most of your stocks into cash - immediately. The market for most stocks is "liquid" because there are so many participants, and there is always a buyer - at some price.

Real estate - for example your house - is less liquid. Unlike with stocks, you cannot click a button and convert your house into a pile of cash. Would that it were so simple. Selling a house is a long, arduous process. You may have to do some prep work first - painting, repairs, maybe some upgrades, then you have to find an agent and show it around. Strangers come traipsing through your living room on Sunday afternoons, peeking in your closets. In a highly liquid (hot) market, you may only have to suffer such indignity for a few days, and receive a price much higher than you expected. In an illiquid (slow) market, you may have to suffer months (or even years) of this treatment, and still not get an acceptable price.

In Detroit, some houses are selling for less than the price of a new car. This is an example of a very illiquid market - lots of people want out of the city. There are few jobs and less hope. They want to sell, but few people want to buy.

Then we come to the once haughty (soon to be lowly) hedge fund. Having money in such a fund can be even less liquid than a house in Detroit. Some hedge funds have suspended redemptions which is akin to saying, "Yes, your money is here and it is (ahem) safe -but you can't have it just now..." When can you have it? Well, that depends. Maybe never, as investors in two Bear Stearns hedge funds found out a few weeks ago. Earlier in the year their investments were doing just fine. A few months later, nothing was left.

What Causes Liquidity to "Dry Up?"
Liquidity - the ability to turn an asset into cash - requires other people who are willing to pay cash for your asset. Modern bank accounts rarely suffer from liquidity crises. In the past, such liquidity crises were known as "bank runs." Mobs of people would rush to the bank to withdraw their funds, but the bank didn't have the money. This is a classic liquidity crisis - the bank most likely had the assets (mortgages, loans outstanding, hedge fund investments, etc.), but the assets couldn't be converted to cash quickly enough (i.e. immediately) to satisfy the rioting mob. Bank runs have been rare since the Great Depression because accounts are now insured by the government.

A mini stock market panic - like the one we saw last week - is a form of liquidity crisis. As long as stock prices are rising, people want to buy more and more shares. They will even borrow money to buy shares, and banks will readily lend them the money. There is no fear that the money will not be repaid, because the collateral against the loans (stocks) are going up.

But like last week, when stocks suddenly fall, buyers disappear. Stockholders, like homeowners in Detroit, and their hedge-fund-holding brethren, want to sell, sell sell! They want to be "liquid," but buyers are only willing to buy at lower prices - much lower. "Ridiculous!" the would-be sellers might say. It is much better to wait, and sell in the inevitable rally that will follow. (Maybe the rally will even be so good that they won't have to sell at all!)

But not so fast. The banks that loaned them the money to buy the stock in the first place have other ideas - namely getting their money back, with interest thank you very much. They demand repayment in the form of the dreaded margin call. This forces shareholders to cough up more money, or "liquidate," i.e. convert assets to cash even if they don't want to - even if they're going to lose money. The bank will not lose money.

The factors discussed above are, cumulatively, the factors that determine global liquidity. The font of global liquidity springs from the world's central banks, which create liquidity by "printing it" as Fed Chairman Bernanke famously revealed. In truth, Central Banks do not print money, they loan it, and loans need to be repaid.

The Fed sets interest rates (the discount rate and the Fed Funds rate) at which banks can borrow money. The interest rate on money is just another way of setting the price of money. When the interest rate is low, money is cheaper. Like cheap anything, there is more demand for cheap money, and there is also correspondingly more supply. Since it is so cheap, more of it has to be lent in order for banks to make a profit.

The recent housing boom in the United States was the result of cheap money. Since interest rates were at historical lows, people borrowed more. Banks, corporations, individuals and the government borrowed lots of money because it was so cheap. They all thought they could use the cheap money to their advantage. The government borrowed a lot of money and had a war. Corporations borrowed a lot of money and bought their own shares. Individuals borrowed money and bought houses. Banks had access to so much money that they let their lending standards go - nearly anyone could borrow money to buy a house, start a hedge fund, whatever! This is what is meant by global liquidity. There was so much money sloshing around the globe, just looking for a home.

As noted however, borrowed money eventually has to be repaid. Because so much money was lent, and lending standards were so lax, it turned out that a lot of people couldn't repay their loans. A bank's response when a person can't make their monthly payments is often to demand full repayment. Borrowers who couldn't come up with monthly payments certainly couldn't come up with the full balance, so they defaulted. Hedge funds that invested in mortgages and derivatives also lost money - lots of it. The banks that loaned the hedge fund money issued margin calls - the same way they issue margin calls to individual investors.

Suddenly, with the thought of money actually being lost (or more accurately, as I noted before - destroyed), banks have become less willing to lend, because investors are less willing to buy the banks debts. Investors - having already been burned - are rather looking to sell what they own. Since everyone is thinking the same thing, there are few buyers. No one wants to spend his cash, borrowed or not. Ergo, liquidity - the ability to convert assets to cash - "dries up."

The result of a lack of liquidity is nearly always the same: falling prices. Just as rising prices can create a virtuous cycle of ever-higher prices, falling prices can create a destructive cycle of lower prices as credit is destroyed and asset prices collapse. The housing market in Detroit is one example.

Only when this destructive cycle is complete - after prices have fallen as far as they are going to - are assets once again viewed as bargains. At that point, demand again rises and liquidity lubricates the flow of rising prices.

A word to the young, mobile and wise would-be homeowners - check out Detroit.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Fed]

A word to the young, mobile and wise would-be homeowners - check out Detroit.

ха-ха

[anotherv]

A word to the young, mobile and wise would-be homeowners - check out Detroit.

ха-ха

==============================================
"check out Detroit"
On August 7th, 2007 Just dropping by says:

Failing schools, 14% unemployment, increasing crime, 50% population decline, and you want to move there because houses are cheap? I guess that makes as much sense as wanting to buy a stock with a lot of problems because its cheap (i.e. value investing). Unlike the value stock, your houses probably won't go to zero (unless you really don't know how to pick 'em or the taxes are high and its a cash flow negative situation).

Eventually home prices in Detriot will go higher, but I still wouldn't want to live there...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buy Low, Sell High
On August 8th, 2007 manystrom says:

Buy low, sell high.

The key to returns is not when you sell, but when you buy.

Buy when there is blood in the streets.

You've done an excellent job of pointing out why Detroit is now a buy. 97 out of 100 will say exactly what you said - I don't want to live there. That is why only 2 -3 in 100 are truly wealthy. Detroit will eventually come back. How long will that take? I don't know. I just offered a suggestion to check it out. You could buy 10 houses for the price of one in Boston. You don't have to live there.

But Detroit is most likely the future of the US. The problems that have visited Detroit will visit other major cities as well. There are always new opportunities.

Michael
=============================================

[oblom]

It's not looking good for Goldman Sachs's Global Alpha fund.

Despite rumors that the investment bank would wind up the ailing quantitative fund, Goldman Sachs continues to stand by its unit. It was widely reported in the media on Thursday that Global Alpha, a mega $9 billion hedge fund in Goldman's asset management group, was down 16% for the year.

[oblom]

ну что, теперь еще и крупный австралийский мортгидж лендер похоже накрылся

[oblom]

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news ... 0cf7d70c16

[папа Карло]

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news ... 0cf7d70c16

отличнА!

[oblom]

The Fed had to do “something” to give the world the impression that they were actually “doing” something. What did they actually do? Not much. The Fed did not lower rates. It didn’t even increase the monetary base. It just put on a show designed to keep the public con going. All Friday’s move effectively did was to lower the premium for these emergency loans to problem children by 1/2%. And right now Countrywide is the Fed’s seriously delinquent teenager in big trouble with the law.

As of Wednesday of last week the total outstanding [discount window]was $294 million. Not billion, million! Compare this with the total size of the Fed’s asset base of over $800 billion, and you get some idea of how truly insignificant the Fed’s symbolic ploy was.

Not only does the Fed not buy bad securities, the Fed does not buy MBS securities. At least they haven’t yet. They hold no such securities in the System Open Market Account. In fact, as this accounting shows, they reduced the SOMA by over a billion in the week ended 8/15, and cut another $6 billion on Friday. In a move that I missed during the week, the Fed took the rare action of not rolling over about a billion of its maturing Treasury notes. They virtually always roll over 100% of the maturing paper they hold in the SOMA.

The action of allowing paper to expire unannounced is a stealthy way of cutting the monetary base without anyone noticing. So, while the Fed Funds rate had traded well below the Fed’s target of 5.25% throughout the week, by Friday’s Open Market Operations they had gotten the rate back to 5.35%.

Friday’s move was not a policy move. The Fed just cut the premium at Benny’s Pawn and Discount Drive Up Window for Problem Children — a mean, futile, and stupid gesture.

This is not a sign of a Fed that has eased policy.

So far in this crisis, the Fed has NOT injected one cent of liquidity into the system except for that two day bulge on Thursday and Friday August 9-10, which they completely removed by Monday and Tuesday 8/13-14. The Fed remains tight in terms of the SOMA, and making matters worse, foreign central banks are dumping Treasuries to raise cash for injection into their own system in order to try and fix the extreme dollar squeeze in European credit markets. Last week they reduced their custodial holdings at the Fed by a record $17 billion. They actually sold $22 billion of Treasuries, but apparently the Asian central banks are still propping the GSE market as they bought $5 billion in Agencies.

It looks to me like the Fed is frozen in place like a deer staring into the headlights of an 80 mile per hour downhill runaway tractor trailer, while the ECB is fighting its crisis the only way it can, by selling Treasuries and injecting the cash into their system.

The fact is that the Fed remains shockingly tight in terms of the monetary base, which they have maintained at ZERO growth for the past 8 months, and LESS THAN ZERO in the past week when the sheet was hitting the fan. Sure that can all change next week, but you wouldn’t know it from the actions they took on Friday.

At this point, the cut at the discount window looks like nothing more than throwing a bone to a starving dog.

This hasn’t been reported in the media but last week a $9 billion fund of hedge funds made a cash request of $500 million from the institutional money market fund where they hold their idle cash. For the first time ever, this fund of funds didn’t receive the cash immediately. As of Friday they had been waiting two days. They are still waiting, and there has been no word on how long it will take until they get their money. This is a fund that earlier took a $600 million hit on the Amaranth fiasco. And they are still waiting for the $165 million or so that they were supposed to receive from the liquidation.

This is just one fund folks. There are others in similar situations, perhaps hundreds, perhaps thousands of funds.

The run on the bank is only just beginning. Is the Fed’s Friday smoke and mirrors act going to change that?

I doubt it.

это че? дефолтом чтоли потянуло?

[AlexANB]

Кто как хеджирует (проме как покупка опций и фючерсов)?

А куда мои мессаги за последние два дня делись?

Гоблины съели?