197 billion of U.S. mortgage resets this year is still less than the amount of resets will see in February and March 2008. The first six months of next year will see more resets than the grand total for 2007 or 521 billion.
The housing industry plunged deeper into recession as existing home sales plunge 8 percent.
The U.S. housing industry plunged deeper into recession last month as the August credit-market collapse made it harder for buyers to obtain loans.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 8 percent in September to an annual rate of 5.04 million, the fewest since records began in 1999, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington. The decline was almost twice as steep as economists forecast, while the median price dropped the most in almost a year.
"The worst isn't behind us, the worst is here right now," said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Group in New York.
The inventory of single-family homes represented a 10.2 months' supply, the most since February 1988.
Pending sales plunged 6.5 percent in August to the lowest level on record following an 11 percent plunge in July. The measure tracks contract signings, while the figures on sales of existing homes are based on closings, which usually occur a month or two later.
The real-estate agents' group this month reduced its sales forecast for the 10th time this year.
D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, said Oct. 16 that orders in the fiscal fourth quarter plunged to the lowest in almost six years as customers backed out of purchases and banks restricted lending.
1. На сколько процентов с пика упали цены на кондо или таунхаусы в хороших районах крупных американских городов - деловых центрах типа NYC, SF и т.п.? А то пишут либо про некие средние цены, либо про обвал в глуши или в Детройте. В нормальных местах как с ценами?
2. Есть мнение, что кризис в США не повлияет на цены на жильё в Канаде. Объясните мне, почему это мнение неправильное.
1. На сколько процентов с пика упали цены на кондо или таунхаусы в хороших районах крупных американских городов - деловых центрах типа NYC, SF и т.п.? А то пишут либо про некие средние цены, либо про обвал в глуши или в Детройте. В нормальных местах как с ценами?
Merrill Lynch's two top strategists, David Rosenberg Richard Bernstein, both concur that the current backdrop is "highly reminiscent of the late-1980s cycle. While no two cycles are ever the same, some very similar patterns have emerged.
A backdrop highly reminiscent of the late 1980s:
• The late 1980s was a cycle characterized by a synchronized global expansion, but in the context of a fatigued US economy and strength back then in Europe and Asia.
• A cycle fueled by tax cuts and highly accommodative monetary policies early on, “new paradigm” views on the equity market bull run, and a massive housing boom that morphed into a bubble and credit excesses that turned into a crunch.
• As was the case this time around, the Fed moved in the latter stages of the cycle to hike rates aggressively and invert the yield curve. As is the case today, practically every reason was cited for why the yield curve didn’t matter any more (nice call).
• Back then, the Asian stock market that caught everyone’s attention was Japan – today it is China.
• We also experienced a wave of LBO-financed merger and acquisition activity that certainly also took hold through most of 2005 and 2006.
• Of course, we also had a faltering dollar in the late 1980s and rising commodity and gold prices igniting concerns over the inflation landscape – concerns that we can now say were overdone.
Interesting observations from the crew at Merrill . . .
Да. Так и будем встречать мировой кризис. Кто в своих домах, кто сьемных в апартментах. Кстати, чего стратеги то так по крупному в своих собственных убытках то ошиблись? Прогнозировали одно, а получили в два раза больше. Економисты-аналисты блин
Merrill Lynch reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 93-year history after taking $8.4 billion of write-downs, almost double the financial firm's forecast three weeks ago.
Да. Так и будем встречать мировой кризис. Кто в своих домах, кто сьемных в апартментах.
cash is always better
Кстати, чего стратеги то так по крупному в своих собственных убытках то ошиблись? Прогнозировали одно, а получили в два раза больше. Економисты-аналисты блин
читал в газете, что седня был первый день пре-продаж апартментов будущей олимпийской деревни - люди ночевали с пятницы в палатках, чтобы быть первыми, 55 челов очередь уже с субботы сидела, .. караул ...
