Гринспан жжет.....готовтись к рецессии

[oblom]

ormer Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the current market turmoil is in many ways "identical" to that which occurred in 1987 and 1998, when the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed.

"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907," Mr. Greenspan told a group of academic economists in Washington, D.C., last night at an event organized by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, an academic journal.

Bubbles can't be defused through incremental adjustments in interest rates, Mr. Greenspan suggested. The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95 and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."

"The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," he said.

[Fed]

ormer Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the current market turmoil is in many ways "identical" to that which occurred in 1987 and 1998, when the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed.

"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907," Mr. Greenspan told a group of academic economists in Washington, D.C., last night at an event organized by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, an academic journal.

Bubbles can't be defused through incremental adjustments in interest rates, Mr. Greenspan suggested. The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95 and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."

"The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," he said.

Гринспен сам и помогал эти пузыри надувать и technology bubble и real estate bubble, а теперь в каком-то бондовом фонде подрабатывает, устраивая локальные обвалы на рынках акций (чтобы все бонды покупали). Хитрый старый хрен.

[oblom]

во время ушел....почуял что жареным запахло

[Fed]

Greenspan Acknowledges He Didn't Initially Grasp Risks of 'Subprime' Mortgages

[oblom]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Alpha hedge fund fell 22.5 percent in August, its biggest monthly decline, on losses from currency and stock trades.

[Fed]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Alpha hedge fund fell 22.5 percent in August, its biggest monthly decline, on losses from currency and stock trades.

кхех, лузеры...

[simon]

В ВБ тоже аукнулось с ипотечным кредитованием http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jin ... YXHhG1Ma8w" target="_blank

[Fed]

В ВБ тоже аукнулось с ипотечным кредитованием http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jin ... YXHhG1Ma8w" target="_blank" target="_blank

ха-ха, вкладчики штурмуют офисы банка, чтобы вернуть сбережения. Где-то когда-то мы уже это видели. Прикол заключается в том, что банк английский, а не российский, и год сейчас 2007, а не 1998 г.

[oblom]

шок для профа.....он там все дефолт российский пророчил

[oblom]

http://ml-implode.com/

[Malysh'OK]

В ВБ тоже аукнулось с ипотечным кредитованием http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jin ... YXHhG1Ma8w" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

ха-ха, вкладчики штурмуют офисы банка, чтобы вернуть сбережения. Где-то когда-то мы уже это видели. Прикол заключается в том, что банк английский, а не российский, и год сейчас 2007, а не 1998 г.

Да как-то не очень это смешно. Российский кризис был вполне себе локальным. Аналогичные проблемы у крупнейших западных банков означают, что зашаталась вся мировая финансовая система. BIS (Bank of International Settlement) уже предупредил о возможности наступления скорой глобальной депрессии. Вот парочка цитат по теме :

The rescue of IKB, a specialist lender based in Dusseldorf, began on Sunday when Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister, called leading banking executives to discuss a bailout. According to people who took part in the conference call, Jochen Sanio, head of Germany’s financial regulator, is said to have warned of the worst banking crisis since 1931.

Forexpf.Ru - Forex News / Новости Форекс 15:09:07 21:40
Европа сплотилась перед лицом финансового кризиса
Министры финансов и главы Центробанков стран Евросоюза в субботу пришли к соглашению о необходимости совместного вмешательства в ситуацию на финансовых рынках с целью предотвращения глубокого кризиса. Однако щекотливый вопрос о том, деньги какой страны пойдут на спасение межнационального банковского сектора все еще находится на стадии обсуждения.

И на закуску - сам Генри Полсон (US Treasury Secretary) :

Кризис доверия, поразивший мировые рынки заемного капитала, станет самым продолжительным за последние 20 лет. С таким заявлением выступил во вторник министр финансов США Генри Полсон. Работая в Goldman Sachs, он пережил три масштабных кредитных кризиса: латиноамериканский 1980-х годов, когда рухнули гособлигации Бразилии, Аргентины и Мексики, азиатский 1997-го, когда правительство Таиланда в грубой форме спасало от девальвации национальную валюту, а также российский дефолт 1998 года. По словам г-на Полсона, три предыдущих «апокалипсиса» цветочки по сравнению с тем, что ждет мировую финансовую систему сейчас.

[Fed]

Российский кризис был вполне себе локальным.

"Российский" кризис 1998 г начался в юго-Восточной Азии (в Тайланде) в 1997 г и был вполне себе международным, хотя больше всех пострадала РФ, объявив дефолт и девальвацию. Теперь проблемы с ипотечными кредитами в США грозят серьезными убытками крупнейшим международным банкам, однако разговоры о депрессии imho из области ненаучной фантастики. Кроме кризиса ликвидности на кредитных рынках и кризиса доверия в банковской среде, а также грядущей коррекции на рынке недвижимости - какие еще существуют предпосылки для депрессии? Рецессия может быть в Штатах, да и то не факт. После того, как лопнул technology bubble, рецессии даже не последовало. В любом случае здоровая коррекция рынку недвижимости не помешает.

[(Alex)]

money as debt or no debt - no money

[Fed]

Investment banks 'to lose $30bn'
Person counting dollars
Investment banks will have limited profits to count, analysts predict.
World investment banks are set to reveal they have lost about $30bn (£15bn) from bad debts linked to the global credit crunch, a report says.

Analysts are predicting the firms - many of which report quarterly results this week - will have to write-off 10% of the $300bn loans they have agreed.

In some cases profits will be almost wiped out, the Sunday Times said.

The report comes ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting which is expected to see a cut US interest rates.

The Fed is tipped to reduce rates from 5.25% by 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points in a move that would be aimed at preventing the downturn in the housing market and the credit crunch from severely denting the US economy.

By making money cheaper to borrow, it is hoped that people would spend and invest more, revitalising the economy.

'Zero profits'

The results from investment banks including Merrill Lynch and Bear Sterns will provide the first real insight into the impact of the crisis on some of the world's biggest banks.

"The hits will essentially mean that some investment banks will have made almost no money over the last quarter," said Khan Abouhossein, an analyst at JP Morgan. "Profits will be close to zero".

As well as their involvement in bad debt, most are expected to reveal their exposure to commercial paper - short term debt issued by large corporations and financial institutions.

The paper is not used to finance large scale investments but provides short term money - or cash flow - to these businesses.

When they mature, these short term loans are generally rolled over and re-financed but the current crisis in the debt markets has led to unwillingness among investors to do this for some loans.

The credit crunch has been brought about largely by troubles in the US housing market where people with low incomes were given mortgages that they have been unable to repay, and have therefore defaulted on.

But because these so-called sub-prime loans have been sold on to banks and other institutions, it has been difficult to gauge who has exposure to the losses, and to what extent they threaten various companies.

Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has told CBS's 60 Minutes programme that during his tenure he "didn't get" how the surge in sub-prime lending might dent the economy, saying he had no notion of how large it had become until he was about to leave office.

[Fed]

Northern Rock withdrawals at £2bn

People with accounts at the Northern Rock have withdrawn almost £2bn since Friday, the BBC's business editor Robert Peston has learned.
And the firm is bracing itself for more withdrawals in the coming days.

It is also understood that the Northern Rock was close to being sold to one of two UK banks before it sought emergency funding from the Bank of England.

However, these deals fell through because of the difficulty of borrowing money in the current financial climate.