https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-ne ... 9-pandemic...We estimate that 12 per cent of mortgage holders have elected to defer payments so far, and that figure could reach nearly 20 per cent by September.
... Canadians are among world leaders in household debt. Pre-COVID, the ratio of gross debt to GDP for Canada was at 99 per cent. Due in part to increased borrowing but even moreso to declines in GDP, we estimate it will increase to above 115 per cent in Q2 2020 and reach 130 per cent in Q3, before declining. These ratios are well in excess of the 80 per cent threshold above which the Bank for International Settlements has shown that national debt intensifies the drag on GDP growth.
Looking at debt multiples of disposable income, that measure will climb from 176 per cent in late 2019 to well over 200 per cent through 2021. Moreover, CMHC is now forecasting a decline in average house prices of 9 – 18 per cent in the coming 12 months. The resulting combination of higher mortgage debt, declining house prices and increased unemployment is cause for concern for Canada’s longer-term financial stability.
... We feel we need to avoid exposing young people (and through CMHC, Canadian taxpayers) to the amplified losses that result from falling house prices. Unless we act, a first time homebuyer purchasing a $300,000 home with a 5 per cent down payment stands to lose over $45,000 on their $15,000 investment if prices fall by 10 per cent. (Our calculations include the mortgage insurance premium and the costs of selling the home if forced to do so because of unemployment or any other reason.) In comparison, a 10 per cent down payment offers more of a cushion against possible losses. If there is an insurance claim, CMHC will be called upon to cover these losses. We are therefore evaluating whether we should change our underwriting policies in light of these market conditions.
...People believe that owning a home is essential for retirement savings. Indeed, over the past 20 years, the average Canadian homeowner has had a tax-free gain of $340,000 in the value of their home. That sounds great, until we add in the fact that $300,000 of that gain has been created by increased borrowing. These house prices and debt levels are increasingly out of reach for young people. Homeownership actually tends to be lower in countries with higher incomes.
At CMHC, along with my 2,000 colleagues, we remain fully committed to our aspiration that by 2030, everyone in Canada has a home they can afford and that meets their needs. COVID-19 has brought the value of stable shelter into sharp relief, strengthening our resolve.
В общем, к 30-му году что-нибудь, возможно, и удастся наладить в этой сфере. Впрочем, тот кто сегодня позвонит своему риэлтору, все еще может отделаться малой кровью...