https://betterdwelling.com/bmo-revises- ... rger-drop/BMO: Worst-Case Scenario For Canadian Real Estate Is A 29% Drop
The worst case, or “adverse” in BMO lingo, is a lot worse than they had expected just a few months ago. As of April 31, 2021, this scenario includes a drop of 12.3% for 2021, and another 18.7% decline in 2022. Compounded, that works out to a 28.7% decline in home prices from a year before.
This is a much larger house price decline than they anticipated was possible just a few months ago. In October, they had forecast a 9.1% decline for prices in 2021 for this scenario. It would then be forecast to fall another 4.6% in 2022, bringing the worst-case loss forecast to 13.28% by the end of next year. The revision sees the decline becoming more than twice as large in the event of a downturn. In other words, the bear case is even more bearish than before. ...
Впечатляет разброс между Best-Case и Worst-Case Scenario стоимости средней канадской недвижимости к концу следующего года: 855К vs 459K.
Замечу, что 459K - это стоимость недвижимости в самом начале 2014г (с учетом официальной инфляции). В те времена моргиджи давали со ставкой 3.5-4+%.