А во второй или третьей фазе снизит ее на ничего не значащие 25-50п.
блин , чувак как в воду глядел
с интересом прочитал. Как его зовут и какая ссылка?
Верить. не верить Гринспену или этому чуваку-дело личное, но не прислушаться было бы глупо. Я с ними согласен, по меньшей мере рецессия грядет, а может и кирдык
Прислушиваться конечно надо, так же как и делать выводы и принимать решения исходя из своей личной ситуации. Кликушничать, паниковать или считать что кирдык обойдет какие то страны стороной - явно не имеет смысла.
The U.S. economy shrank in three non-consecutive quarters in the early 2000s (the third quarter of 2000, the first quarter of 2001, and the third quarter of 2001). Strictly speaking, the U.S. economy was not in recession during this period -- the common definition being "a fall of a country's real gross domestic product in two or more successive quarters."
Those using a less traditional definitions of the term deem part or all of this period to have been a recession and there remains some debate over the start and end dates. The initial report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), declares a recession that lasted from March 2001 to November 2001, as real gross domestic product dropped during this period by 0.2% total from the fourth quarter of 2000. However, even this definition is in doubt. Several members of NBER's business cycle dating committee have said that revised data indicates a recession actually began some time within the final months of 2000.
I sat at my desk 30 minutes before the FOMC release wondering what the Fed would do. And then they cut 50bps. So that's how it's going to be, eh Ben?
What followed was what you'd expect . Stocks were up strongly, with the S&P up 2.9%, homebuilders up 6%, bank and brokerage stocks up huge, gold up $15 to a new 27-year high, gold equities up 4%, crude up again to close over $82, and the dollar weaker, finishing at a new 15-year low. I don't suspect that today will get a chapter in the eventual tome on the fall of the dollar, but it certainly merits a footnote. When gold and crude are making near-record highs and the dollar is making near-record lows, I think prudence dictates rate hikes, not rate cuts -- as Marc Faber and Jim Rogers pointed out today -- but cutting rates 50bps instead strikes me as insanity. Nonetheless, these are the cards we have been dealt, and now we must bet accordingly.
The conclusion is obvious: the Fed is telling us that it will punish dollar holders. And like the oldest adage in the book goes, "Don't fight the Fed." By holding dollars in cash/savings, you will be earning less and less on your money, and be losing as the dollar declines in value relative to other currencies, paper assets, and commodities.
Was this a "one and done" cut? Hardly. GDP growth is likely to remain sluggish for several quarters, dragged down by housing and probably employment as well. These excesses don't go away with a snap of the fingers and a 50bps rate cut. That's what's so perplexing -- odds are the economic data will be no better, and probably at least a bit worse when the Fed meets at the end of October. They're going to have to cut again. And where will already-trending gold, oil, and the dollar go with more rate cuts?
The bottom line is the Fed's mandate has shifted from price stability and filling the needs of business to full employment and low inflation to its current form, which is preventing asset deflation/credit contraction and recessions. If we think we can use the Fed to foster booms and at the same time prevent the after-effects of those booms we are sadly mistaken.
it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
(Alex) писал(а):it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
(Alex) писал(а):it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
надежды юношей питают. кирдык в период глобализации границ знать не будет.
(Alex) писал(а):it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
надежды юношей питают. кирдык в период глобализации границ знать не будет.
(Alex) писал(а):it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
особенно учитывая факт, что российская экономика не только никоим образом не будет затронута американским кризисом, но наоборот, будет еще больше процветать...
(Alex) писал(а):it's just soo good to realize that should anything happen you can safely return to russia and make your living there... unlike, many canadians or americans who do not have the option, we are pretty lucky...
надежды юношей питают. кирдык в период глобализации границ знать не будет.
в период глобальной глобализации да, согласен
это точно, ну а пока она локальная, и вся российская нефть в россии же и потребляется, - россиянам бояться всяких там мировых кризисов не приходится
особенно учитывая факт, что российская экономика не только никоим образом не будет затронута американским кризисом, но наоборот, будет еще больше процветать...
не разочаровывай профа, он спит и видит, что бы все было наоборот
