"... Over the last two years of traveling constantly in China, I can say that I have not seen a single city, town, or hamlet without massive empty housing stock. A colleague, on two trips crossing about 1,500 kilometers overland, said that he was not out of sight of empty buildings even once. Up by the Siberian border, the town of Manzhouli has decided to become a tourist resort and built thousands of empty “villa” developments. In the southern mountains of Yunnan, a colleague took video footage of 15 kilometers unbroken of empty highrises. The ghost developments stretch along Beijing’s southern Fourth Ring and through Shanghai’s Pudong and Xuhui. The East District Zhengzhou looks like a post-apocalyptic landscape. The new districts of Harbin could earn some revenue as sets for a remake of I Am Legend.
When I have been able to collect a count of all housing now available for sale, not counting projects already sold but not occupied,
cities seem to average out at about 25 square meters of new housing per individual in the city, or one new dwelling for each four people. Yinchuan in Ningxia has around 200,000 units on the market, with a population of 800,000 in the city proper and 1.2 mln in the extended city. As a comparison, the United States sells about 650,000 new homes per year. The small city of Tieling in Liaoning Province has a reported 10 mln square meters of available space for a population of 400,000. Kunming, Xian, Chongqing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Haikou, Urumqi, Changchun: there is no city in the country without stretches of terrifyingly empty towers.
...
Now, the oversupply of housing seems to be converging on a single number that is roughly equivalent to 25 square meters per person, or units enough to re-house the whole population of an area. Prices also are converging, on a range of 5,000 Renminbi per m2 to 10,000 Renminbi in each city, depending on how luxurious the housing but regardless of where the city is or what level of income is average for the population. Tianshui, a poor city in Hebei that was a mere village a decade ago, is selling at 10,000 m2 just as are apartments in the relatively wealthy cities of Shenyang and Harbin.
What this means is not that that housing in China has become a new type of tradable and fungible commodity something like wristwatches or jewelry or indeed piles of copper or gold. The purchased units are left empty, because renting them would depreciate the value of the real estate; living in the housing is actually an impediment to realizing its value..."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/20 ... ty-houses/
25 квадратных метров нового, незаселенного жилья на человека - это, на самом деле, чрезвычайно много. В России, для сравнения, на человека в среднем приходится около 20 метров любого жилья.
Остается только догадываться, какая цена окажется на сырьё и энергоносители, когда Китай в какой-то момент перестанет строить жилье такими темпами (уже построенного жилья им хватит на пару десятилетий)...