падение цен на недвижимость - ага - щазз

[Gatchinskiy]

Весь билдинг ушел за 3 дня под очередь, люди ночью стояли, в Сурее, Карл! Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

All 275 condos in future tower in Surrey sold in under 72 hours

Heightened condominium demand in Metro Vancouver reaching a level not seen in at least five years has returned.

All 275 units within the upcoming 30-storey Belvedere tower in Surrey City Centre were sold in pre-sale in under three days. The homes were released on Friday and by Sunday all units were sold, according to One Flat Fee realtor Mayur Arora.

[BOX]

Весь билдинг ушел за 3 дня под очередь, люди ночью стояли, в Сурее, Карл! Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

И тут же в Province

To build affordable rental housing let’s change the game

To build affordable rental housing let’s change the game



сеичас я бы так Карлу сказал:
Don’t buy your principal residence with a speculator mindset. Always stay within your financial means, and then no matter what the economy does, you will be okay

[Meadie2]

... no matter what the economy does...

Bank Of Canada Governor Doesn’t See A Property Bubble, But He Did In 2013

The Bank of Canada (BoC) head recently dismissed the need to cool real estate prices. Governor Tiff Macklem seems like he doesn’t want to say anything controversial… or he’s one of those people that thinks real estate prices only go up. That wasn’t the case back in 2013, when he served in the central bank’s number two role.

During his tenure as deputy governor, he warned about Canada’s addiction to real estate. In a 2013 speech, Macklem ripped on everything from overvaluation to GDP concentration. So what changed? Did things improve, or has ignoring the problem for almost a decade produced a situation too fragile to touch? Has everyone in charge just decided they don’t want to be the pin that pops the bubble? Let’s dive into his concerns back then, and how those indicators look today.

Canadian Real Estate Showed Signs Of “Overvaluation”
In his former role, Governor Macklem felt home prices were overvalued. “Over the past decade, the price of the average home has risen from 3.5 times disposable income to more than 5 times.” Adding, “Housing activity in Canada is at a near record share of GDP, and there are indications of overbuilding and overvaluation in some segments of the housing market.”

Let’s quickly unpack how those indicators look today. The average home price was a concern to him at 5x disposable income in 2013. Today that number is over 15x, and that’s just at the national level. In Toronto and Vancouver, it’s much higher. Somehow, tripling a level of “overvaluation” is just a slight sign of overheating.

Another concern is housing represented way too large a share of GDP. That didn’t get better, it got much worse. Residential investment was around 6.5% of GDP in 2013, when he expressed his concern. In Q3 2020, residential investment jumped to almost 9.5% of GDP, meaning it consumes 46% more of the economy today.

In 2013, it was concerning to approach a record high. Today it’s “good for the economy” that it smashed the record? Canada’s residential investment as a share of GDP is now so high, it can’t see the US housing bubble without a telescope.

Investors Driving The Real Estate Market Made It Vulnerable
In the same speech, Macklem also said prices were being driven by investors creating speculative demand. “The total number of housing units under construction is now well above its average relative to population… there is also abundant anecdotal evidence that building has been spurred by investor demand, and is therefore more susceptible to changes in buyer sentiment.”

Canadian real estate was barely on the map of speculators at that time. It’s currently one of the most sought after markets for investment. In 2018, almost half of Toronto real estate investors bought negative cap condos. Negative caps are when the market rent a tenant pays, is lower than the carrying costs of the unit. Every month the owner tops up the costs, with the hope prices rise more to make up the difference. Currently, rents are falling across the country as home prices are rising. This would likely mean the investment situation is even worse today. It also probably extends much further out of Toronto as well.

Household Indebtedness Was A Top Concern
High levels of household debt were a top concern. “Household indebtedness is elevated and a range of indicators suggest that some segments of the housing market exhibit stretched valuations and overbuilding… In the last 10 years, the pace of household debt accumulation has been unusually rapid. Household debt relative to disposable income increased about three times faster in the last 10 years than in the previous decade.”

The rate of mortgage credit growth has been larger, but it’s much higher than when he was concerned. The annual rate of growth in January 2013, when he made this speech, was 5.12% for mortgage credit. The last reported numbers in January 2021 show annual growth at 7.19%, a rate that’s a touch over 40% higher. I guess it was bad credit then, but it’s good credit now.

[BOX]

More Canadians than ever before are expecting home prices to keep climbing
A record share of Canadians expect home prices will continue hitting new highs, an exuberance that adds to concern the housing market is entering a speculative bubble.

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/m ... home-price

[bedi]

Весь билдинг ушел за 3 дня под очередь, люди ночью стояли, в Сурее, Карл! Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

All 275 condos in future tower in Surrey sold in under 72 hours

Heightened condominium demand in Metro Vancouver reaching a level not seen in at least five years has returned.

All 275 units within the upcoming 30-storey Belvedere tower in Surrey City Centre were sold in pre-sale in under three days. The homes were released on Friday and by Sunday all units were sold, according to One Flat Fee realtor Mayur Arora.

Got the one?

[bedi]

Весь билдинг ушел за 3 дня под очередь, люди ночью стояли, в Сурее, Карл! Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

И тут же в Province

To build affordable rental housing let’s change the game

To build affordable rental housing let’s change the game



сеичас я бы так Карлу сказал:
Don’t buy your principal residence with a speculator mindset. Always stay within your financial means, and then no matter what the economy does, you will be okay

"Always stay within your financial means"
The rule of thumb and just a common sense, I guess

[Twoflower]

В общем случае, это логическая ошибка - сегодня финансовые минс есть, а завтра - эпидемия, снежный буран, и финансовые минс неожиданно тю-тю.

Живем однова, берите кредитов побольше!

[Marmot]

В общем случае, это логическая ошибка - сегодня финансовые минс есть, а завтра - эпидемия, снежный буран, и финансовые минс неожиданно тю-тю.

Живем однова, берите кредитов побольше!

Тем более, что инфляция на носу, долги брать становится выгодно... при наличии хорошей работы, разумеется...

[bedi]

В общем случае, это логическая ошибка - сегодня финансовые минс есть, а завтра - эпидемия, снежный буран, и финансовые минс неожиданно тю-тю.

Живем однова, берите кредитов побольше!

Тем более, что инфляция на носу, долги брать становится выгодно... при наличии хорошей работы, разумеется...

Вот именно, минс имеется ввиду не только кэш в банке.

[Meadie2]

В общем случае, это логическая ошибка - сегодня финансовые минс есть, а завтра - эпидемия, снежный буран, и финансовые минс неожиданно тю-тю.

Живем однова, берите кредитов побольше!

Тем более, что инфляция на носу, долги брать становится выгодно... при наличии хорошей работы, разумеется...

Вот именно, минс имеется ввиду не только кэш в банке.

И на что, интересно, предлагается тратить взятые в кредит деньги: на потребление (от покупки продуктов питания и бытовой техники до суперкаров и самолетов) или на какие-либо инвестиции, доходность по которым ожидается выше, чем % по взятому кредиту (типа покупки биткойнов с кредитной линии)?

Добавлю, что если у людей берущих кредиты уже имеются определенные инвестиции, то взятие кредитов даже чисто на потребительские цели является релевереджингом этих инвестиций, По сути, вместо того, чтобы потратить свои живые деньги - люди берут кредит. Ну, и естественно, конечный результат здесь зависит от эффективности основных инвестиций - как и во всех случаях с релевереджингом.

В случае существенной инфляции - могут произойти кардинальная переоценка не только различных финансовых ассетов, но и спроса на рабочую силу и уровня оплаты труда в различных отраслях. Я еще достаточно хорошо помню, что было после того как лопнул доткомовский пузырь...

[BOX]

Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

Metro Vancouver's net increase in dwelling units has surpassed the net increase in household formation by an average of 20% for the last two decades.

2001-2016 Net increase in dwelling units: 241,336

2001-2016 Net increase in number of households: 202,184

There has been no lack of supply.

(Source: GVRD Metro Vancouver Housing Book, 2020 & The Housing Supply Myth, Dr. John Rose, Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Nov. 24, 2017)

https://www.kpu.ca/sites/default/files/ ... 20Rose.pdf

[Gatchinskiy]

Не помню уже кто тут упорно гнал пургу, что понастроили столько что и за 5 лет не продать...

Metro Vancouver's net increase in dwelling units has surpassed the net increase in household formation by an average of 20% for the last two decades.

старовата статейка то, да и истоичник сомнительный... в любом случае, уже не актуальна для 2021...

[Gatchinskiy]

новая, или очередная волна из Hong Kong...

Canada calling? Hong Kong residents shift billions abroad after clampdown

TORONTO (Reuters) - As China imposed a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong last year after massive protests, residents of the city moved tens of billions of dollars across the globe to Canada, where thousands are hoping to forge a new future.

Capital flows out of Hong Kong banks reaching Canada rose to their highest levels on record last year, with about C$43.6 billion ($34.8 billion) in electronic funds transfers (EFT) recorded by FINTRAC, Canada's anti-money laundering agency, which receives reports on transfers above C$10,000.

Jean-Francois Harvey, a Canadian lawyer based in Hong Kong who specializes in immigration for high-net-worth individuals, has seen a five-fold increase in clients seeking to move to Canada since mid-2020. His clients have transferred at least C$1 million and, more commonly, between C$5 million and C$10 million in the last 12 months.

"There's been an incredible increase in demand especially for Canada in Hong Kong, so much that in the middle of COVID-19, I had to double the team and the size of the office in Hong Kong," said Harvey, worldwide managing partner for Harvey Law Group.

"This is more than a spike. This is a wave."

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BH3KR

[pin]

новая, или очередная волна из Hong Kong...

Canada calling? Hong Kong residents shift billions abroad after clampdown

TORONTO (Reuters) - As China imposed a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong last year after massive protests, residents of the city moved tens of billions of dollars across the globe to Canada, where thousands are hoping to forge a new future.

Capital flows out of Hong Kong banks reaching Canada rose to their highest levels on record last year, with about C$43.6 billion ($34.8 billion) in electronic funds transfers (EFT) recorded by FINTRAC, Canada's anti-money laundering agency, which receives reports on transfers above C$10,000.

Jean-Francois Harvey, a Canadian lawyer based in Hong Kong who specializes in immigration for high-net-worth individuals, has seen a five-fold increase in clients seeking to move to Canada since mid-2020. His clients have transferred at least C$1 million and, more commonly, between C$5 million and C$10 million in the last 12 months.

"There's been an incredible increase in demand especially for Canada in Hong Kong, so much that in the middle of COVID-19, I had to double the team and the size of the office in Hong Kong," said Harvey, worldwide managing partner for Harvey Law Group.

"This is more than a spike. This is a wave."

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BH3KR

неужели беспартийные гонгкогцы вытеснят партийных мейлендчайнцев в Ванкувере? Главное, штоб ЗДЕСЬ до стрельбы не дошло.

[levak]

новая, или очередная волна из Hong Kong...
Canada calling? Hong Kong residents shift billions abroad after clampdown
TORONTO (Reuters) - As China imposed a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong last year after massive protests, residents of the city moved tens of billions of dollars across the globe to Canada, where thousands are hoping to forge a new future.Capital flows out of Hong Kong banks reaching Canada rose to their highest levels on record last year, with about C$43.6 billion ($34.8 billion) in electronic funds transfers (EFT) recorded by FINTRAC, Canada's anti-money laundering agency, which receives reports on transfers above C$10,000.
Jean-Francois Harvey, a Canadian lawyer based in Hong Kong who specializes in immigration for high-net-worth individuals, has seen a five-fold increase in clients seeking to move to Canada since mid-2020. His clients have transferred at least C$1 million and, more commonly, between C$5 million and C$10 million in the last 12 months.
"There's been an incredible increase in demand especially for Canada in Hong Kong, so much that in the middle of COVID-19, I had to double the team and the size of the office in Hong Kong," said Harvey, worldwide managing partner for Harvey Law Group."This is more than a spike. This is a wave."https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BH3KR

неужели беспартийные гонгкогцы затмят партийных мейлендчайнцев в Ванкувере? Главное, штоб ЗДЕСЬ до стрельбы не дошло.

Так я об этом давно писал, что Гонгконгцы у кот. я купил квартиру в 1996, вернутся обратно к нам и будут плакаться..
Миди просят не беспокоиться..