FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
22 April 2008
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Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/2 percentage point to 3 per cent
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of a percentage point to 3 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 3 1/4 per cent.
Growth in the global economy has weakened, reflecting the effects of a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy and ongoing dislocations in global financial markets. Growth in the Canadian economy has also moderated as buoyant growth in domestic demand, supported by high employment levels and improved terms of trade, has been substantially offset by the fall in net exports. While both total and core CPI inflation were running at about 1.5 per cent at the end of the first quarter, the underlying trend of inflation is judged to be about 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that was operating just above its production capacity.
simon писал(а):Вопреки этому канадский доллар поднялся против зеленого
Где это он поднялся?
В 9:00 утра, когда объявили ставку, с курсом USD:CAD вообще особо резких колебаний не произошло. Потом какс резко упал, но это случилось около 13 часов (то есть сильно позже). Потом, еще позже, он сильно поднялся (поднятие началось где-то в 13:30 и продолжалось до 16:00, потом постепенно, где-то к 18:00, он вернулся практически на прежний, "довоенный" уровень и с тех пор там и болтается. На данный момент (4 часа утра) имеется даже некоторое небольшое превышение зеленого доллара над канадским по сравнению с предыдущим днем.
В 9:00 утра, когда объявили ставку, с курсом USD:CAD вообще особо резких колебаний не произошло. Потом какс резко упал, но это случилось около 13 часов (то есть сильно позже). Потом, еще позже, он сильно поднялся (поднятие началось где-то в 13:30 и продолжалось до 16:00, потом постепенно, где-то к 18:00, он вернулся практически на прежний, "довоенный" уровень и с тех пор там и болтается. На данный момент (4 часа утра) имеется даже некоторое небольшое превышение зеленого доллара над канадским по сравнению с предыдущим днем.
Из записок валютного спекулянта:
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 7:38 AM
Subject: rates drop 50 basis points, dollar down a bit
A quick dip down for the loonie after the Bank of Canada announcement but it has come back as the USD is getting hit hard again today. Bank of Canada said more cuts are on the way in the medium term.....
Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:02 AM
Subject: usd comeback
The yo-yo continues as the CDN dollar dives as retail sales were bad and the USD stages a mini-comeback in the currency markets....
очередное записко. вдруг кому пригодиццо. лично я почти ничерта не понял. памом, иллюзие. но могу ошибаццо. так что вот.
The recent announcement that BHP Billiton has initiated a takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan for $38.6 billion ($130/share) has some major implications for the market, particularly for the Canadian dollar. While the initial bid was quickly rejected, there is likely to be a long bidding process that could result in a much higher price.
Should this takeover succeed, we wish to highlight the potential implications for our clients:
- Historically, mega-M&A deals have had a major impact on the Canadian dollar. Most notably in 2007, Rio Tinto acquired Alcan for $38 bln and the enormous requirement for CAD sent Usd/Cad from parity to 0.9056 in one month (a record high). Once completed, the dollar quickly returned to normalized levels (0.98).
- The liquidity in the Canadian dollar is not deep enough to absorb multi-billion dollar flows in a short period of time (< one week).
- Even when flows are spread over several weeks, there is likely to be a price impact due to the support it creates for the currency. - Our early analysis of this BHP-Potash deal shows that the CAD requirement could be close to $12 billion.
- Due to risk management and regulatory restrictions, a large currency requirement, in many cases, cannot be completely hedged by the company in advance of the deal closing. Therefore, some of the impact on the currency will be concentrated over a short period of time.
- Speculators generally try to position themselves ahead of large public M&A deals, thereby exaggerating the move in the currency.
- Commodity prices have generally far outpaced the stock prices of the commodity producers this year, making for a ripe M&A environment in Canada. This applies to Oil, Gold and Base metals, to name a few. This deal may be the beginning of an active M&A period in Canada.
