Медведь достал...

[Fed]

еще немного юмора от аналистов:

Хэллоуин (Halloween) - один из древнейших праздников в мире. ?В этом
странном празднике переплелись кельтская традиция чествования злых духов
и христианская поклонения всем святым. В этом году этот праздник
ожидают не только поклонники костюмированных действий. Мировое
финансовое сообщество с нетерпением ожидает заседания ФРС США, которое
состоится 30-31 октября. Фьючерсы на ставку по федеральным фондам
свидетельствуют о практически 100%-ной вероятности снижения индикатора
на 25 б. п. Однако, мало кто из участников рынка на 100% уверен, что
подобное решение станет панацеей для финансовых рынков.

[Sheen]

Так это, где новомодную игрушку скачать, чтобы поиграться на фантиках, и к кому потом подключиться?
ps. Я про Forex.

[anotherv]

Bear Market In Force -- C-YA!
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

More bad news, another brutal day in the markets, and no end in sight. Bear Markets make life impossible in a hurry for those fighting the downtrend and unwilling to step out of the way. They are equal opportunity killers, indifferent to whose money is being lost and indifferent to any set of positive fundamentals that may be in place.

Back in the late 1990’s, as the bull market moved into its final throws with NASDAQ pushing above 5,000 in early March, 2000, I did a full week-long special on why investors should be selling Technology stocks as the NASDAQ romped up above 5,000. My call in writing at the time was for the NASDAQ to drop 2,000 points into an April low, and lo behold, it happened. The hedge fund I was working for at the time made a killing shorting technology stocks, as we had more puts than we could really keep an eye on. PMC Sierra, JDS Uniphase, Human Genome Sciences, Broadvision and Inktomi -- we were short the lot of them. As time proved out, most of those companies had over-hyped fundamentals which were nowhere close to being able to sustain 50, 60 or even 90 times P/E multiples. For the next two years we surfed the NASDAQ on the downside shorting stocks, and then shorting more. At some point, it started getting ridiculous as names that had been $100, $90, and $70 turned into $10, $5, and lower, enough to leave even the most ardent and steadfast bear wondering, “How low can it go?” I can remember like it was yesterday, working with my partner at the time, we were looking at a Telecomm company that had been disassembled, the stock had gone from $50 down to $9. My partner, a top notch fund fundamentalist and a very good friend to this day, told me, “You know, I think we need to cover this short, because the Book Value of the company is $8.85, and how can this thing go below Book Value?” A big discussion ensued; could this company's stock price actually fall below its “book value.” It was a formidable concept at the time, but in the end, it did. Not only that, it fell all the day down to $1.10 in a long tortuous decline, that I am sure made every shareholder puke.

That’s the thing about Bear Market’s. They are the corrective mechanism that counter balances man’s inherent tendencies toward great excess. They are the purging function of markets. Now I have to admit, when my partner came to me that day and told me, “Frank, the stock is X, and the Book Value is Y and there’s nothing more to squeeze out,” for awhile, at least 15 to 20 minutes, I really thought about covering the short and then I thought, “Nah, this thing is going to zero”.

At the time, it was a luxury of being in a position where everything we were short was hugely profitable, and I really didn’t care if I ended up getting nicked a bit on one position. However, the point here is that everything about this climate screams “Bear Market.” Yesterday in watching the S&P, I noted that bulls and bears had fought one another to a near standstill over the last six to seven days. As a bear, I am long an ETF which rises as the stock market goes down. Yesterday, I pondered the question of adding more to the existing short position knowing full well that Citicorp would be coming out with negative news today. I thought, this news will be ugly, and perhaps the stock will go down; but maybe, just maybe, it might shake off the bad news and instead advance after all the stock is depressed and this is a former market darling. These were the usual mental gymnastics, back and forth, back and forth, that any trader agonizes over endlessly. The more I thought about it, the more today’s market reaction shaped up in my mind as a kind of referendum on the market. Would the Fed be tempted to come in with a surprise intra-meeting rate cut to gain extra bang for the rate cut buck on a day when Citi was out with negative news? Would the market digest Citicorp’s negative news and then push the substance of the news aside, and rally the stock on the assumption that the ‘worst is over’?

That may sound crazy, but that type of whitewash on bad news has been the order of the day for the stock market now for some time. “Buy bad news and assume the worst is over.” In the end, I decided to wait and hold off on adding any more to my short position, as I thought, ‘let’s see how the day goes.’ In my view, the day turned out to be an especially telling day, as the news from Citicorp was negative, but more importantly the market was unable to shrug off the negative news. In the past, on countless occasions, we have seen companies come to the market with very negative news, only to see the share price move higher on the basis that the worst of the news was now out in the open.

This reaction, today’s reaction, was something quite different. There is a key measure of defining a market climate and that is, how a market will react to news events. In healthy bull markets, good news serves as an excuse for a party and a huge rally, while bad news is shunted aside with prices refusing to go down very much at all. In Bear Markets, precisely the opposite psychology comes into play, as prices ignore good news and fall out of bed on bad news. In my view, today’s market is one of the first times in years that the stock market has really reacted in a strongly negative fashion to bad news that was telegraphed in advance. That makes today a doubly negative day as it really suggests that a psychology of fear is now taking control and in command of the equity market.

Now, does this mean that the market is going straight down and that we may not see a bounce? Clearly not. Bear markets are littered with sharp counter-trend rallies, and often, these rallies compress a bigger price move into a shorter period of time, so trading in a Bear Market means having the skill set to survive in an inherently treacherous environment. Using ‘stops’ when trading on the short side is not an option, but an abject necessity.

Still, for the majority of investors who have no interest in attempting to trade a bear market, today’s decline would seem to be communicating a powerful message -- that of a market that is now seriously beginning to discount even more bad news. To this end, it means we all need to be even more careful about making assumptions, about presuming in advance how the market will react. Oh, it's fine to come to some ‘basic conclusions,’ but in Bear Markets, the question of how low is low is never an easy question to answer. In bear markets, most technical indicators are able to press down to much lower levels before a market response is generated. In fact, very often, deep oversold values can be sustained for some time, with prices falling further the whole time before any kind of material bounce is inspired. Taking a look at the current market, while there are some short term gauges that have recently become “oversold,” for the most part, the stock market is presently still nowhere close to the kind of serious oversold readings that would be needed to put in an important bottom under Bear Market conditions.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/ba ... /0115.html

[anotherv]

Похоже, обвал на рынках

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/p ... 471D564%7D

[simon]

Похоже на кирдык

[anotherv]

Barron’s Interview with Roubini: “Yes, That's $2 Trillion of Debt-Related Losses”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monit ... ted_losses


p.s. Папа Карло, а можно как-то оживить Облома - буревестника обвала ?

[anotherv]

две интересные статьи:

Dead Men Walking
by Bennet Sedacca
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11073.htm



The Great Consumer Crash of 2009
by James Quinn
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90892-t ... sh-of-2009

[anotherv]

Economist Shiller Says

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... pc,fre,fnm

[anotherv]

There's a Bull Market Somewhere?
by Bill Gross

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+M ... Market.htm

[Waterbyte]

Да. Интересно, что неделя грядущая нам готовит. Может оказаться, что пятничное падение индексов на 2.6% - это цветочки :)

вас интересует завтрак, обед, или ужин?

[akela]

Да. Интересно, что неделя грядущая нам готовит. Может оказаться, что пятничное падение индексов на 2.6% - это цветочки :)

вас интересует завтрак, обед, или ужин?

фикс бери! Фикс лучше. А вариабл, нуевонафик.

[accnt5]

Так это, где новомодную игрушку скачать, чтобы поиграться на фантиках, и к кому потом подключиться?
ps. Я про Forex.

Форекс - это лохотрон, подключаться к нему не надо.
http://lurkmore.ru/Forex
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scam

[Waterbyte]

Форекс - это лохотрон, подключаться к нему не надо.

я правильно понял, что по остальным пунктам возражений не возникло?