Биркин писал(а):Греки подключились:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... eques.html
The Greek government has issued a blanket guarantee of all bank deposits after panic withdrawals by customers in Athens and Thessaloniki, creating an unstoppable stampede across Europe for an EU-wide bail of the financial system.
Сначала это сделали ирландцы, а сегодня к ним присоединились немцы. Тень банковского кризиса нависает над Европой, и правительства пытаются предотвратить панику любой ценой. Но нас, наверное, больше интересует ситуация в США. Вот что пишет о текущей ситуации Нуриэль Рубини (профессор экономики Нью-Йоркского Университета и один из ведущих экспертов по экономике США) :
Financial and Corporate System is in Cardiac Arrest: The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs
It is now clear that the US financial system - and now even the system of financing of the corporate sector - is now in cardiac arrest and at a risk of a systemic financial meltdown. I don’t use these words lightly..
Situation Report: So far as I can tell by working the telephones this morning:
LIBOR bid only, no offer.
Commercial paper market shut down, little trading and no issuance.
Corporations have no access to long or short term credit markets -- hence they face massive rollover problems.
Brokers are increasingly not dealing with each other.
Even the inter-bank market is ceasing up...
В статье ситуация на кредитном рынке сравнивается с клинической смертью (cardiac arrest). Рубини предупреждает, что если "сердце" кредитного рынка не удастся запустить в течение буквально нескольких дней, нужно готовиться к очень серьезным событиям, из которых run on banks будет далеко не самым неприятным :
So we are now facing:
- a silent run on the huge mass of uninsured deposits of the banking system and even a run on some insured deposits are small depositors are scared;
- a run on most of the shadow banking system: over 300 non bank mortgage lenders are now bust; the SIVs and conduits are now all bust; the five major brokers dealers are now bust (Bear and Lehman) or still under severe stress even after they have been converted into banks (Merrill, Morgan, Goldman); a run on money market funds restrained only by a blanket government guarantee; a serious run on hedge funds; a looming refinancing crisis for private equity firms and LBOs);
- a run on the short term liabilities of the corporate sector as the commercial paper market has totally frozen (and experiencing a roll-off) while access to medium terms and long term financings for corporations is frozen at a time when hundreds of billions of dollars of maturing debts need to be rolled over;
- a total seizure of the interbank and money markets.
This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely.
Пока нет никаких признаков улучшения ситуации, и непонятно даже, откуда оно может прийти. Знаменитый бэйлаут билль уже сравнивают с комаром, атакующим буффало. Кризис скушал его, даже не заметив. Ну что же, будем ждать развязки и надеяться, что в этот раз пронесет...
