Замечу, что из ВС уезжают молодые и работоспособные TFW, а приезжают по различным иммиграционным визам люди различных возрастов, включая детей, пожилых родителей и т.д. - т.е. количество работоспособных людей в провинции будет эффективным образом уменьшаться, даже если нетто число приезжающих и отьезжающих будет равно нулю."The first half of 2015 has seen a net increase of less than 6,000 immigrants into B.C., compared with more than 18,000 in the same period last year.
This was the first time in more than 15 years, BC Stats said, that B.C. experienced a net loss of non-permanent residents. If the current trend continues, immigration to B.C. will fall below the annual inflow that forms a key foundation of housing demand forecasts. The dramatic decline began in the fourth quarter of 2014 when net immigration fell to negative 1,808 people – meaning that many more people left B.C. for other countries than arrived. This was the first net loss of immigrants to the province in more than a decade.
Senior Central 1 economist Bryan Yu said the loss of immigrants could result in a cooling of future housing demand in B.C.
The immigration collapse did not surprise Vancouver immigration lawyer Richard Kurland. “It’s all about the temporary foreign workers (TFWs) leaving Canada,” said Kurland.
The Conservative government set April 1, 2015 as the deadline for the temporary low-skilled workers to leave the country after changing the rules in 2011. Formerly, TFWs had only to re-apply, but new rules require them to leave the country for at least four years before re-applying.
“There are also no new temporary workers coming in,” said Kurland, a partner with Kurland, Tobe.
There are an estimated 70,000 TFWs in B.C., the third highest among provinces, so net immigration levels could stay low for some time, Kurland suggested.
A 90-day provincial moratorium on applications under B.C.’s revised Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) that was lifted July 31 may have also choked off the flow of middle-class immigrant entrepreneurs, according to Grace Wong, the new CEO of Success, a non-profit immigrant settlement agency in Vancouver. The PNP program allows immigrants to qualify quicker for permanent residency if they invest up to $200,000 in a business. “It takes a while to see the effect of such changes,” Wong said.
But Yu suspects more is going on than the loss of lower skilled temporary workers. “More concerning is [the] further down trend in the number of permanent resident immigrants to the province,” Yu said, noting that the inflow of such immigrants to B.C. fell 19% through the first half of this year."
Определенный положительный момент это имеет: даже в условиях рецессии и экономического кризиса слишком большая безработица нам похоже грозить не будет - на пиццу или на минималку всегда устроиться можно будет (и не поедет же народ из Альберты на такую работу?).
Про рынок недвижимости в статье написано. Добавлю, что в подобных условиях логично было бы ожидать снижения цен на рент дешевого жилья, включая легальные и нелегальные свиты в частных домах, которые часто помогают их хозяевам выплачивать свои моргиджи.
